With my modest knowledge of political science – and I stress the word modest so no one feels threatened – I dare say this: timing is everything when it comes to decision-making in politics. And the MPLA, a party with over half a century of experience in power, made a mistake that even a novice would be embarrassed to commit.
At a moment when Adalberto Costa Júnior was being harshly criticized on social media for insinuating that João Lourenço had bought the presidency of the African Union – a statement that was poorly received in some sectors of Angolan society – the MPLA had a golden opportunity to remain discreet, give the opposition space to trip over its own rhetoric, and gain political points without lifting a finger. But no. It chose the opposite path.
As if it were strategically wise, the government announced a fuel price increase precisely at that moment. An unexpected gift to the UNITA leader. The result? The public’s attention immediately shifted away from Adalberto’s political gaffe and back onto the Executive. Protests in the streets, renewed criticism, widespread social outrage – all blowing up in the MPLA’s face.
Now, if there’s anything that should be obvious after 50 years in power, it’s this: you don’t throw gasoline on the fire when your opponent is already burning himself. The decision to raise fuel prices was never going to be popular – not at any time. But the mistake was political, not economic. It was the timing, not the measure itself, that revealed a level of naïveté the ruling party simply cannot afford.
There was, however, one man who read the moment with political coldness and intelligence: Higino Carneiro. Coincidence or not, he announced his intention to run for the leadership of the MPLA at the exact moment the party was being pummeled in the streets and on social media. A masterstroke. He positioned himself as an internal alternative just as public discontent was growing and the party needed a pressure valve.
If the timing of his announcement was deliberate, then it’s a clear sign that Higino is playing political chess while others are still stuck playing dominoes. In politics, it’s not enough to be right. You have to be right at the right time.
The MPLA urgently needs to relearn how to read the mood of the country. It needs to think before acting, and more importantly, it needs to understand that today’s political battlefield isn’t just in Parliament.
The people can endure sacrifice, but they will not tolerate being provoked. And that is precisely what the announcement of the fuel price hike did: it provoked a nation already exhausted by promises and weary of carrying the burden of poorly calculated decisions.
In politics, mistiming a decision is the equivalent of scoring a goal… in your own net.
Telford, 14 June 2025
By Malundo Kudiqueba
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